Oscar Predictions 2009

Oscar Predictions 2009

I'm going to put on my turban, take on the role of Carnac the Magnificent and attempt to predict the outcome of the 81st Annual Academy Awards*. This is the first time I've tried this, and I'm willing to admit that I have not necessarily seen all the movies nominated, but I'm sure most of the people deciding the awards are in the same boat, so I'll press on.

There have been a good crop of Oscar contenders this past twelve months, but they all seem to be frontloaded to coincide with awards season. The rest of the year doesn't lay fallow as far as intellectual cinema is concerned, but it would be nice to see some spacing. I've been to the cinema at least once a week for the last six weeks, an average which will slip into sharp decline after this month.

I've decided to just attempt the big six awards and I'm looking for around 50% accuracy, so here goes.

BEST PICTURE

The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Frost/Nixon
Milk
The Reader
Slumdog Millionaire

This is a hard one. I think The Reader can be dismissed straight away (mostly because its the only one I haven't seen), but the other four all have a chance.

Benjamin Button has managed 13 nominations, but I think it will struggle to capitalise on the night. It’s warmed over Forrest Gump, and besides, I'm still holding a grudge from when the latter movie beat Pulp Fiction to Best Picture in 1994, so it’s out.

Slumdog is the front-runner in this category, and it will probably win the award. However, this attempt at prognostication is more about what I think deserves to win rather than a distillation of bookies odds, so I'm dismissing it too.

I saw Milk this week. It’s harrowing, and brilliant, and it made me angry. I initially thought that Frost/Nixon would win, but this film has made me seriously rethink that. I'm sticking with Frost/Nixon though, as, overall I enjoyed it slightly more, although stranger things have happened than a tied Oscar.

Prediction: Frost/Nixon

BEST ACTOR

Richard Jenkins for The Visitor
Frank Langella for Frost/Nixon
Sean Penn for Milk
Brad Pitt for The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Mickey Rourke for The Wrestler

When the nominations were announced, I was surprised to see Richard Jenkins in here. I saw The Visitor earlier in the year and had a hard time sitting still during most of the movie. I kept thinking to myself "ok, any second now it will get good" but it never did. It was just so slow and meandering. However, it was a message movie on immigration, so I suppose that may have been what garnered this nomination. The solid acting might not have hurt either.

I think the serious running is between the other four, so lets do some whittling. Brad Pitt is going to have to wait another few years for an Oscar, simple as that. Frank Langella was excellent as Tricky Dicky in Frost/Nixon, but something tells me he won't win. He brought a funny eccentricity to Nixon, but he didn't need to carry an entire movie in the way that the remaining two candidates did.

So, it’s down to Rourke and Penn. On one perfectly manicured hand an actor portraying the first gay man ever to be elected to public office in the USA, and on the other scar infested hunk of flesh a man running around wearing tights. It’s a shame, because if both actors had given similar performances in neutral movies, I think Rourke would have edged it.

I'm going with Penn because, Academy bias aside, I think Milk deserves at least one award and because his performance is achingly fresh in my memory.

Prediction: Sean Penn

BEST ACTRESS

Anne Hathaway for Rachel Getting Married
Angelina Jolie for The Changeling
Melissa Leo for Frozen River
Meryl Streep for Doubt
Kate Winslet for The Reader

There are some heavyweights in this category, and it's also a complete guess on my part, since I have only seen The Changeling. In my opinion its even running between Streep, Jolie and Winslet, with the latter edging it due to her recent Golden Globes form.

Prediction: Kate Winslet

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Josh Brolin for Milk
Robert Downey Jr. for Tropic Thunder
Philip Seymour Hoffman for Doubt
Heath Ledger for The Dark Knight
Michael Shannon for Revolutionary Road

Continuing the trend of having one odd nomination per category, Robert Downey Jr. is in here for his performance in Tropic Thunder. Its not that he didn't do a great job, just that you don't see a lot of comedies nominated come Oscar time.

It pains me to say this, because I think it’s for all the wrong reasons, but I think Heath Ledger will win this one. Hollywood loves a good story, and what could be better than honouring a dead actor with a posthumous Oscar? It doesn't matter that action movies never usually win anything beyond Best Special Effects, just stick someone on stage to talk about how great he was, and you've got yourself a headline right there.

Prediction: Heath Ledger

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Amy Adams for Doubt
Penelope Cruz for The Reader
Viola Davis for Doubt
Taraji P. Henson for The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Marisa Tomei for The Wrestler

This is another difficult to call category, because I haven't seen Doubt or the Reader.

Marisa Tomei already has one Oscar under her belt for - of all things - My Cousin Vinny. The rumour is that on Oscar night Jack Palance, who was presenting the award, read out the wrong name and the Academy didn't want to admit a mistake was made, so they let the result stand. Although proved false (see http://www.snopes.com/movies/actors/tomei.asp), it’s certainly a plausible urban legend; MCV is a great film but, looking at the DVD case the other day, the words "Oscar winning" still seemed out of place. Tomei may need the same good fortune again, because I think Taraji Henderson is going to take the award for her role as Queenie, the mother of a wrinkly reverse baby.

Prediction: Taraji P. Henderson

BEST DIRECTOR

Danny Boyle for Slumdog Millionaire
Stephen Daldry for The Reader
David Fincher for The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Ron Howard for Frost/Nixon
Gus Van Sant for Milk

This is the hardest category to predict because the outcome depends somewhat on whether this becomes the companion award to Best Picture. Straight away, and for no good reason, I'm ruling out Stephen Daldry and David Fincher. I don't want to keep cracking on about how there was nothing special in Benjamin Button, because if not compared to this swathe of Oscar nominees its an enjoyable film, just not particularly award-worthy.

Of the remaining three, I think that either Danny Boyle or Gus Van Sant should win. Both brought superb performances out of their casts, and there was an inventive use of camera in their movies. I'm going with Danny Boyle here. I don't think he'll go home empty handed on the night, and he did some special work on Slumdog which deserves a miniature golden man.

Prediction: Danny Boyle

I also want to predict Martin McDonagh winning Best Screenplay written for the Screen. In Bruges was perhaps the funniest film of 2008. I saw it on a trip to New York, and although some of the anti-American sentiment didn't go down too well, its hilarious from start to finish.

All this predicting makes you wonder how Nostradamus felt. All the while I was writing this I was constantly looking for statements with the potential to put egg on my face. Maybe I should have followed his lead and been vague to the point that nobody would know what my predictions were. "The Oscars, ah yes. There will be winners, but also losers. Some will be happy, some sad. I predict a deserving winner of Best Picture, but there will also be resentment in some corners, as they thought that another movie would win."

Hopefully, come the morning of 23rd February I can hold my head high, or level at least. Next year 60%.

* Do not place any bets using this guide as a template. Do not operate heavy machinery while using this guide. Reading this guide may cause you to become sterile.